Epsom Derby Betting

Epsom Derby 2011: tips and guide to the runners

CARLTON HOUSE: Won the main Derby trial, York's Dante Stakes, from another Epsom runner Seville. Carlton House is owned by The Queen so sure to be popular in the betting. Trained by top handler Sir Michael Stoute, responsible for numerous Derby winners including Shergar. Badly drawn in stall 13. Already a strong favourite in the Derby betting but odds drifting out a bit after a late scare having knocked a leg. It's a big negative.

RECITAL: Won a Derby trial in Ireland. Has good connections, from the powerful Aidan O'Brien yard and to be ridden by Kieren Fallon. But Recital looked a bit wayward which suggests he may not be suited by Epsom's undulating camber. Despite his undoubted talent, he looks plenty short enough in the betting.

SEVILLE: Runner-up to favourite Carlton House in the Dante at York. In defence of Seville that was a slowly run race and a muddling affair. You could not categorically say that he could not reverse form with Carlton House given a strongly run race, as they tend to be at Epsom. Seville is another Aidan O'Brien representative.

POUR MOI: Easily landed a weak trial in France. Very hard to assess the merit of the form. This colt is beautifully bred and trainer Andre Fabre is accorded legendary status in his home country. The bookies are taking no chances with his current odds.

NATIVE KHAN: Won a Guineas trial before running a distant third in the Guineas itself behind runaway scorer Frankel. The jockey got off and stated the horse wanted further and The Derby is a half mile further than the 1m of the Guineas trip. He was running on a bit and he is being prepared for Epsom specifically. The form has been franked as the 2000 Guineas second filled the same place in the Irish equivalent. The trainer Ed Dunlop knows how to get a horse ready for a big race. Big chance as long as the heavens do not open and the ground remains fast.

OCEAN WAR: Lightly-raced and not over-faced, winning a minor listed race cosily at Newmarket last time over 1m 2f. Hard to assess just how good he is but a promising sort and would be no surprise if he got involved at the business end. Trained by Shekh Mohammed's Godolphin operation and they should know what it takes to mount a realistic shot at The Derby.

MASKED MARVEL: Another dark horse who has been brought along patiently and quietly. Won a listed race for his trainer John Gosden at Goodwood easily over 1m 3f, so the Montjeu colt's stamina is guaranteed. The Derby is a huge step up in class, but he has been nibbled at in the Derby betting and there are worse each-way shots. Cost 230,000 euros as a yearling and might end up looking a bargain.

OUR CONCLUSION: The Queen's Carlton House is a nice horse but there is no value in his current odds, which is likely to shorten even more in the Derby betting. Recital hung across the track in his trial and was not that impressive anyway. The each-way Derby betting value looks to be NATIVE KHAN who should give a good run for the money at the odds in an open-looking race.